Bengals beating Jets

Pats beating Ravens

Cowboys beating Eagles

Packers beating Arizona

So that’s a sucky 1-3 start, but starting in this round of the playoffs, I’m going to pick against the lines to see how well I would do in Las Vegas.

Here are my picks with odds included:

Line: @ New Orleans (fav) -7 against Arizona (und) - 56.5 over/under

Picks here are tough to extract.  I don’t think New Orleans is as tough as they once were, but they have had a week rest and will be ready to go with a great game plan.  Arizona will be going up against a much tougher defense than Green Bay so their defense will have to step up to match which I don’t think will happen.  Add in the dome noise and I think the Saints handily win this one.

I have New Orleans winning this game 35-24.

This means NO covers the spread and the game goes over the over/under 56.5 points.

Line: @ Indianapolis (fav) -6.5 against Baltimore (und) - 44 over/under

What’s hard here is keeping my personal wishes out of the equation.  My favorite team is the Patriots, but now that Baltimore has advanced against them, I’d like to see them knock out the Colts too.  They brought back their havoc wreaking defense to decimate the Patriots at Gillette Stadium, but the Pats were obviously hurt and not even a shell of their former selves - remember they lost to Houston in week 17 in a game they wanted to win.  So great win for Baltimore, but it came against no powerhouse.  I loved what their running game was able to produce, but 37 yards from Joe Flacco is a tell-tell sign the Ravens aren’t going any further.  You’re not going to game manage your way past a serious Super Bowl Contender - especially in a road dome.

On the other end, the Colts have a lot of bad momentum, but are extremely rested and Peyton Manning will have the troops ready to go.  I think the Baltimore D will bring down both the passing and running game, but if Peyton Manning wants to score when it counts, I don’t think the Ravens can stop him.  On defense, the Colts will force Joe Flacco to pass the ball and that will not end up well for Baltimore.

I have the Colts winning 27-17

This means the Colts cover the spread and the over/under is a push.

I’ll put my analysis up on the Cowboys/Packers and Jets/Chargers tomorrow morning.

Thanks to DocSports.com for sponsoring me this season.

http://www.cnn.com/2009/CRIME/12/01/washington.police.shootings/index.html

Here is their favorite coffee shop’s website. The owner is a retired officer and is taking donations via paypal.

http://www.forzacoffeecompany.com/

The 4 officers had 9 children total.

If you can afford to donate 1 or 2 dollars, I think the financial help would be much appreciated by the families.

If you don’t have the extra money, donating a few minutes of your time and spreading the word in other online communities/forums/blogs could make even more of a difference.

If you are hardcore FF, then you probably know who he is - and I’m not the first to have this idea - but nevertheless gold is gold. Doesn’t matter who discovered it first as long as you found your way to your share.

I don’t want this publicized as a fellow league member may read this blog - I’m in 6 leagues of 12 and I’m headed to the playoffs in all but 1 league. I will publish my prodigal son on Wednesday though.

The guy is fantasy football money.

Stafford was playable (but if I’m the Lions no way I play my franchise hurt here) but Calvin Johnson should have been out for sure, he could barely run (he really should have been on the sidelines). Unfortunately, I didn’t know these guys true conditions other than they gutted it out and were going to play. After watching what they did against the Browns - the team that held the Ravens offense touchdownless on Monday Night Football - and given that the Packers lost starters Aaron Kampman and Al Harris (and were already super shaky anyways), I decided to bench Green Bay.

At first, it looked like a really good decision. Jordy Nelson fumbled a kickoff and the Lions converted a CJ TD right away. However, Stafford turned on his interception machine and eventually through a dagger in me by getting picked off by Charles Woodson for a TD (8 points right here) with about 2 minutes to go.

Anyways, all this amounts to some hurt and a lot of hope that the Vikings save me against another INT hurler, Jay Cutler. But the question remains, what to make of Matthew Stafford? Stafford has talent but it’s obvious he needs off season practice and a lot of coaching. His success is on a sharp edge because he’s always on the verge of it turning into a major failure. Basically, he tries to fit the ball any type of window he sees - no matter how small. I love the fearlessness, but there needs to be some smarts behind the gun.

It’s probably no coincidence you could say the same about Jim Schwartz and his decision to play CJ and Stafford on Thanksgiving Day. It was much appreciated by the fans and network that he gave them the ol’ college try, but he really shouldn’t have. In the end, it was a horrible display on turkey day by two guys that should have been resting significant injuries. The Lions would have had a much better chance to win with C-Pep but I’m sure Stafford wanted to play and Calvin Johnson didn’t want to look like a non-gamer. Schwartz being the aloof person I’m sure he is showed none of the discipline you need from a head coach to know when to say no. End result, Stafford throws 4 picks and Calvin barely musters a hobbled effort to half time and the Lions lose in a route. They weren’t fun to watch either.

Going forward, Stafford can’t be a play because he makes too many mistakes. He needs to learn a lot this coming off season and then the next year. In two years, he may be a pretty good gunslinger if Detroit continues to improve the offense and he has a first class QB coach.

Normally, I wouldn’t be all over a Ben Utecht type of guy, but when the Colts start winding down with their clinched playoff spot, they won’t be featuring Dallas Clark as their go to TE, they’ll be passing to guys like Santi to hold the fort down. True, Jim Sorgi might be the one doing the passing, but odds are Santi would be the next best option when the Colts start playing like they have nothing to play for besides getting hurt.

This is the perfect kind of addition you look for in the waning weeks of the fantasy football season. The Giants schedule isn’t great but if you’re looking for depth or trying to get some patchwork on a fallen star (Ronnie Brown, Michael Turner, Clinton Portis/Ladell Betts), here is your chance. Ware is going to be available in almost every league.

I was talking to my friend tonight (who is in 1 of my leagues) and reminded her of 2 very sage pieces of wisdom.  Winning is fun and losing sucks.  There’s something about fantasy football that makes losing a little extra bad.  Thankfully I’m winning this year and I have a very legit shot at bagging multiple crowns.

On to Week 11 Advice:

• Kenny Britt may be a good fill in
• Pierre Thomas will score big
• Don’t count on St. Louis handing out points to the Cardinals.  They might but they might not.  See last week.
• If Kyle Orton doesn’t play, B. Marshall takes a huge downgrade

That’s it.  Good luck and play this song when you’re setting your lineup.

Don’t ask me how but it will help you.

His stats are hurting but it’s not from a lack of will.  Ladainian is trying his hardest to dispel critics that say his career is over, but he just doesn’t have it anymore.  My conclusion is running backs that are workhorses for 5 years or more in their career before the age of 30 can’t beat the wear and tear after their 20s are over.

Frank Gore

Pierre Thomas

Greg Jennings*** (excellent candidate)

Brian Westbrook

Jason Witten

Matt Forte

Thanks for reading my fantasy football blog.  If you need any free fantasy football advice, feel free to email me for a second opinion.

Now, I think Steve Smith of the Giants is the better of the two.  He’s huge in fact.  With Plaxico out of the picture, he’s become Eli’s primary target and now gets major catches and is even more than a possession receiver.  Though I’ve heard that he doesn’t have WR1 talents or athleticism (like I would know if not), he is reported to have tremendous route running ability (he has to be a damn good route runner).

Steve Smith of Carolina did have a good game with 8 catches and 131 yards against Atlanta last week, but the last few seasons he seems to no longer be the touchdown threat he once was.  He is also extremely erratic as proven already this season.  His first game only netted 25 yards.  Part of the problem is Jake Delhomme being a has been.  The other part is Carolina now features a power running game they much prefer to their passing.

Panthers Steve Smith still is the better talent, but the Giants Smith is the better fantasy option.